📈 Coinbase's 43% Rocky Road

⚡ The Fast Five → Figma confidentially files for IPO, Nvidia to record $5.5B H20 processor charge, Honda switching manufacturing to US, Hermes overtakes LVMH in market cap, Coinbase earnings loom

🔎 Market Trends → Wall St ends lower as tariff uncertainty keeps investors on edge; US Futures Little Changed

And now…

⏱️ Your 5-minute briefing for Wednesday, April 16, 2025:

MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open

Pre-Market

Fear & Greed

Markets in Review

Wall Street Dips, But Bank Earnings Steady the Ship

The Dow fell 0.4% to 40,369, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% to 5,396.6, and the Nasdaq edged down to 16,823.2. Consumer discretionary led the decliners, while tech and financials provided ballast.

The Big Picture:

Markets treaded water Tuesday as investors balanced solid bank earnings against rising tariff tensions with China. While equities pulled back modestly, the tone remained constructive with banks beating expectations and no signs of economic strain.

President Trump emphasized that “China needs to make a deal,” reinforcing his hardline stance as trade talks stall. At the same time, Jamie Dimon (JPM) urged both sides to begin engagement now—not later.

Oil prices held firm at $61.53/barrel, despite lowered demand forecasts from the IEA and OPEC, both citing trade-related macro headwinds. Gold climbed 0.7% to $3,248.50/oz, while silver rose 0.5% to $32.32/oz—safe-haven demand quietly gaining.

Market Movers:

• Bank of America (BAC) rose 3.6%, a top S&P 500 gainer, after reporting a strong Q1 and saying it doesn't see a US recession in 2025.

• Citigroup (C) gained 1.8%, buoyed by robust trading and investment banking revenue, even as management flagged a more “negative” global outlook.

• Albertsons (ACI) dropped 7.6% after issuing underwhelming forward guidance, despite beating Q4 expectations.

• Boeing (BA) fell 2.4%, the Dow’s worst performer, as China halted plane deliveries amid escalating trade friction.

What They’re Saying:

“The ball is in China’s court,” President Trump told the WSJ. “We don’t have to make a deal with them.”

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events

• Today: Census Bureau - Core Retail Sales (Ex Autos) m/m - 8:30am

  Why You Should Care: It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

• Today: Census Bureau - Retail Sales m/m - 8:30am

  Why You Should Care: It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Earnings Reports

• Today: Abbott Laboratories, ASML, U.S. Bank, CSX, Las Vegas Sands, Kinder Morgan

• Tomorrow: Netflix, American Express, UnitedHealthcare, Charles Schwab, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Blackstone, Snap-on, Regions Bank

MARKET BRIEF
Leading News

Coinbase's Rocky Road: A Patient Investor's Opportunity Amid Crypto Volatility

Why it matters:

As bitcoin continues its oscillating dance around the $84,000 mark, Coinbase (COIN) presents an intriguing case study in how institutional adoption of cryptocurrency affects market valuations—and potentially your portfolio.

Zoom Out:

Despite recent technical weakness, Coinbase has advanced 43% over the past year, handily outpacing the S&P 500's 23% gain. This performance follows an astounding 391% surge in 2023, reflecting the company's resilience after the crypto winter of 2022.

The crypto exchange appears caught in a familiar pattern: euphoric rallies followed by sobering corrections. With Q1 earnings approaching on May 8, analysts expect $2.10 EPS on $2.2 billion in revenue—representing 32% sales growth despite a projected 52% decline in earnings.

Key Insights:

• Technical crosswinds: The stock has undercut its 200-day moving average and remains below its 50-day line, with the latter having fallen below the 200-day—a bearish signal that prudent investors should monitor. The correction may test the resolve of those who bought near recent highs.

• Regulatory thaw: The SEC appears poised to drop a two-year lawsuit claiming Coinbase should be regulated like a conventional stock exchange—a development that could significantly reduce compliance costs. The agency's newly appointed crypto task force signals a maturing regulatory framework.

• Political tailwinds: JPMorgan analysts describe the November election as a "monumental catalyst" for the crypto exchange, while Trump's administration has established a President's Working Group on Digital Assets Markets to develop proposals for a regulatory framework.

Market Pulse:

"Coinbase is best positioned to benefit from pro-crypto moves from the Trump administration," note Bernstein analysts, who assigned a $310 price target with an outperform rating.

Bull’s Take:

Patient investors may consider watching for the stock to reclaim its 50-day moving average—often a signal of renewed institutional interest—before establishing or adding to positions. Remember that in nascent markets like crypto, volatility is the admission price for potentially outsized returns.

Headlines

• Nvidia says it will record $5.5 billion charge tied to H20 processors exported to China (link)

• Figma confidentially files for IPO more than a year after ditching Adobe deal (link)

• Honda considers switching some car production to US from Mexico, Canada, Nikkei reports (link)

• Wellington, Vanguard, and Blackstone to Collaborate on Investment Solutions Combining Public and Private Assets (link)

• Johnson and Johnson warns pharma tariffs could cause drug shortages (link)

• Hermes overtakes LVMH in market cap to become most valuable luxury company (link)

CRYPTO
Fear & Greed

Headlines

• Bitcoin ETFs Lose Over $800M in April as Institutions Stick With Bonds Amid Tariff Volatility (link)

• Stablecoin Market Could Grow to $2T by End-2028: Standard Chartered (link)

• Securitize Acquires MG Stover's Unit to Become Largest Digital Asset Fund Administrator (link)

DAILY SHARE
On the Socials